oysterium

Saturday, November 26, 2005

Carl Menger, fisherman and bibliophile

Carl Menger's first great book, the Grundsatze, is on line courtesy of the Mises Institute. Just Google Carl Menger. Hayek wrote a substantial biographical note and we find that Menger was a very keen fisherman! Hayek wrote "He frequently invited the seminar to a Sunday excursion into the country or asked individuals to accompany him on his fishing expeditions. Fishing, in fact, was the only pastime in which he indulged. Even here he approached the subject in the same scientific spirit that he brought to everything else."

Hayek wrote that Menger's private library was one of the three or four greatest libraries ever formed by a private collector. All of his economics and ethnography books are now in the school of economics in Tokyo and the the catalogue lists 20,000 items in economics alone.

Popper grew up in a house with more books than the library at Canterbury College when he first arrived, but the figure was nowhere near 20,000 on all topics. Given Menger's voracious appetite for history, philosophy and biology the entire collection must have been far beyond 20,000

Wednesday, November 23, 2005

The triumph of Australian agriculture

Australian farming represents a triumph of human ingenuity, faced with uncertain climatic conditions and some of the most infertile soils in the world. Despite these disadvantages, (or is it because of them?) we have some of the most efficient farmers in the world.

Some of this can be attributed to a happy partnership that evolved between farmers, state ag departments and the researchers in unis and the CSIRO. The division of labour ran along the lines that the unis and CSIRO did basic research and the State departments did extension and field trials for immediate application. Of course some of the work at unis and CSIRO involved field trials and was applied as well, depnding on the inclinations of the researchers.

Here are some of the things that I have written about these things on other occasions. First an essay on Australian science with some thoughts on the four factors (including free trade) that make for innovation and effective application of research and development. That was where I mentioned the value of having some people with one foot in practice and the other in the fundamentals. On the importance of free trade, check out the Swedish experience where their dynamic private sector has so far managed to (just) provide the resources for cradle to grave welfare.

I came off a dairy farm and studied Ag Science with the first cohort to go through the course at Tas Uni: then on the Adelaide at the Waite Institute for honours with Keith Barley. That year was funded by the Meat Research Council and I wonder what they thought about my thesis on the penetration of clay by root hairs. This piece is a defence of apparently weird research projects, with some more about Keith Barley who was the man who placed The Open Society and its Enemies in my hands in the spring of 1968.

He was Reader in soil plant relations in the Agronomy Department, the biggest department in the Waite and a kind of microcosm of the Waite as a whole. We had people working on soils, animals and plants in various combinations: the Waite had Argonomy, Animal Production, Plant Pathology, Entomoloy, Biochemistry, Soils and Plant Breeding. Just over the road was the CSIRO soils division and the CSIRO wine research institute. Wine in 1967 was still mostly consumed from flagons (at least by students) and the wine industry of today was just a small cloud on the horizon.

My research was jointy supervised by Keith and Albert Rovira in the CSIRO. A de facto third supervisor was Bill Greacen from the CSIRO who was Keith's principal collaborator on soi mechanics. They were supervising a mature age doctoral student from Victoria, on paid leave from managing the Tatura Horticultural Research Station. In later years I often stopped over there to break trips between Sydney and Melbourne. We all drank together at the Arkaba on Fridays and then I mostly went on to dinner with Keith's family just a step down Fullarton Road towards the city.

Later I met Ivan Kennedy in Sydney and he introduced me to one of the grand old men of rural research, Jim Vincent. This is a review of a collection of papers in his honour and this is an interview with him.

Sunday, November 20, 2005

Can the "European miracle" survive?

A fine paper by Gerard Radnitzky is now on line in the Rathouse. The bottom line of this long and challenging paper is that the secret of the 'European Miracle' has been the evolution of limited government. There is no trade-off between freedom on the one hand and economic success and scientific progress on the other hand. The two are inseparable because economic growth has come from economic freedom and competition, and scientific progress has come from a free market of ideas.

The phenomenon of the 'Rise of the West' has been made possible by the evolution of freedom in the economic sphere from political and religious influences, and by other developments leading to the security of property rights. It is an open question whether the relatively free society which grew out of the 'European Miracle', will be a unique, fragile and transient exception in human history or an enduring achievement.

For more on Gerard Radnitzky, including the address of his website, see his entry under "About the philosophers" .

With Bill Bartley he edited a great collection of papers on evolutionary epistemology and related topics.

Friday, November 18, 2005

How to Make Good Innovation Policy

Whether you agree with it or not, governments around the world these days spend a lot of time, money and effort on attempts to 'foster innovation', which can mean anything from more basic scientific research, to growing patent applications, to increasing R&D expenditure (public and incentives for private), encouraging new firm creation or creating the 'right climate' for entrepreneurship.

I've recently been looking at various benchmarking exercises that attempt to compare innovation activites, policies and frameworks (i.e. institutional settings) amongst regions (whether they be cities, states or countries).

The benchmark for innovation benchmarking is the OECD's Science, Technology and Innovation Scoreboard, a data series published bienially which covers its members and 9 non-member, but emerging, countries.

Last year the OECD trialled a new technique using 'composite indicators', which try to parcel up the more than 75 individual measures produced for the STI Scoreboard, along with survey data from the World Economic Forum and the IMD, into more useful meta-indicators called, for example, 'technology diffusion', 'innovation financing' and 'market conditions'. The ultimate goal is to rank places by virtue of both their innovation outcomes, and their innovation inputs/drivers. The 2004 report on the project is here.

Anyway, one of the problems with the approach they've adopted is that the indicators included in each 'composite' measure have to be chosen by hand, relying on the 'informed judgement' of the analyst. This leads to things like 'the number of patents in triadic patent families' being used to measure regional performance in the 'innovation activity' composite, while leaving out, for example, new firm creation rates.

I think there is a way to do this meta-benchmarking better: it's called fuzzy clustering. Fuzzy clustering is a statistical technique which allows elements in a population to belong to more than one group/segment simultaneously, and which then produces a measure of the strength of membership for each element in each group. It allows you to build up a 'map' of which things or places are most like (or not like) other things or places. In essence, the data speak for themselves and are allowed to fall 'naturally' into groups, rather than being a priori segmented on the basis of 'informed judgement'. Economic geography - or place-based success - starts to look a lot different from this perspective.

There are many well-recognised methodological problems with standard benchmarking exercises, especially issues related to data collection, coverage and comparability.

But I think there is a deeper problem with these attempts to benchmark: they presume that linear ranking is meaningful. By concentrating on the production of league tables - that rank 'better' over 'worse' - they miss all the nuances of place-based success in a globalised - i.e. increasingly specialised and therefore differentiated - world.

The worst-better-best approach also makes it difficult to distinguish between the drivers of success as opposed to the outcomes of success. On the most recent figures (2004) Australia rates in the top 3 within OECD countries for public investment in research (along with Finland and Sweden). Yet the best (or at least most widely-used) measure of successful outcomes that we have at the moment (growth in GDP per hour worked = "productivity") shows that in the same year Australia did 'better' than Sweden, Finland, the UK and Switzerland, but 'worse' than the US, Hungary, and the Czech and Slovak Republics.

How to make sense of this, especially from a policy-making perspective? What is cause, and what is effect?

Ultimately I think this is a problem of inherently linear and static growth theories (including the new/endogenous and so-called Schumpeterian variants) that fail to acknowledge the dynamic development capacity of an economic system. Economic growth and its statistical off-sider, productivity growth, are the wrong long-term targets. Potts' recent post on maximising novelty-throughput speaks to this, but the credibility battle (not least how does one model the creation and consequences of novelty) is far from won.

In the meantime, I think there are policy-relevant, practically-useful alternatives to linear innovation-ranking mechanisms. Using fuzzy clustering, one would produce an 'innovation map', that shows (only) what places are innovatively *like* other places. A series of such maps would show how these dis/similarities are changing over time. The problem of cause and effect is circumvented by the fact that all indicators can be lumped in together. This may sound messy, but given theoretical uncertainties about these relationships it sure beats an a priori attribution of dependence vs. independence for particular variables, as must happen in regression-based analysis.

If I was making innovation policy for Australia, I'd rather know that we are like Israel but not like France in terms of patent creation per capita, and that we're like the US but not like Singapore in terms of public subsidy for R&D. I don't need to know that we came 16th in the OECD rankings for productivity (where France 'beat' us) and 12th in Richard Florida's Global Creativity index (where we 'win' hands down over Singapore). Encouraging high-tech start-ups? Give me Bangalore over California. Creating excellence in human capital development? I want us to be like Benelux, Israel and, actually, Singapore, but not like the US or China.

These are, at worst, subjective and at best, normative goals. But all innovation-related policy is like this, because we understand so little about how growth and development work, and even less about how they can be encouraged.

Using league tables to gauge innovation performance, and future capacity, simply provides a boost to short-run thinkers' egos. It's a bit like soccer in Australia - now that we've arrived, there's no question for most people that we've always had the capacity to 'do soccer well'. But it took someone (Lowy) with resources, and the foresight that comes from an understanding of context, to get us there in the first place.

Innovation-performance league tables are mechanisms to boost the same kind of success-in-sport pride. But they promote laziness in terms of long-term strategic development. They lead to the cut-and-paste approach to innovation policy ('if it's worked there it will work here') which ultimately underpins the zero-sum game of pursuing 'best practice'. All the literature on national innovation systems and innovation-led growth cautions against blind duplication of policy strategy; it instead tells us that becoming different is what matters, and that policy should always, therefore, be made with regard to context. League tables don't provide context, but global innovation maps might.

Down with linear rankings, I say. Maps of like and not-like are less exciting perhaps (because you can't tell who's winning); but they might be much more useful for good strategic policy making.

The Paradoxes of Parsons

There are some exasperating paradoxes in the thought of Talcott Parsons. First of all, in epistemology and methodology he was correct with his early views on the symbiotic relationship between evidence and theories but later his system became a great verbal cardhouse with no empirical anchorage.

The other major paradox is that a person who was supposed to be a full bottle on economics should have supported the New Deal in violation of classical economic principles.

The short answer to the first problem is that he took on board a false conception of the role of mathematics in the natural sciences, and also the idea that conceptual schemes have to be developed to some very high degree beore the next step of developing testable theories can proceed. It is one thing to accept that untestable ideas may lead the way but not to suggest that they have to be elaborated into ever-increasing levels of complextiy without any deductive relationship with the world.

I suppose the answer to the second is that economists walked away from the classical principles in droves during the 1930s. Someone might have a good explanation for that phenomenon. For example why did Robbins turn 180 and embrace the new orthodoxy?

Parsons and Smelser on the bridging of economics and sociology.

During 1953-54 Parsons travelled to Cambridge (on the Cam) to deliver a series of Marshall Lectures on the “Integration of economic and sociological theory” while he held a post as Visiting Professor of Social Theory. One of his students from Harvard, Neil J Smelser, was completing his Rhodes Scholarship in Philosophy, Politics and Economics at Oxford and they speedily entered into collaboration to produce Economy and Society: A study in the integration of economic and social theory (Routledge 1956).

In the preface they wrote that the process of integration had not proceeded as much as one might have expected since Pareto showed the way and they nominated three reasons, (1) the focus on techical refinements in economic theory, (2) the pressure for economists to work on public policy issues and (3) the rudimentary state of theory in sociology.

They warned that the book contains both advanced economics and advanced sociology, so one was likely to cause problems for the sociologists and the other would test the economists.

On the labour market.

“The classical assumption for labour supply is simply that a conventional supply curve, with an upward slope, covers the entire range of variation in real wage rates. For any level of real wages, therefore, a corresponding quantity of labor seeks employoment. The wage level “clears the market”. Hence so-called involuntary unemployment is impossible, except as a matter of the friction involved in adjusting to random disturbances.” (page 86).

The authors note Ricardo’s and Marshall’s positions on the classicla theory, then proceed to Keynes.

“Keynes modified both these versions of the classical doctrine with the concept of the “stickiness of money wages”. Essentially he holds that the supply curve of labour services, relative to money as opposed to real wages, does not have a continuous upward slope through the relevant range, but flattens at a certain point below which no labour can be hired. If wages fall below this level the effect is withdrawal of labour services from the market rather than acceptance of employment at the lower wage level which would clear the market. It is curiuos that Keynes postulated a stickiness in connection with labour supply but not the supply of other factors of production, for which an equally good case might be made”. (page 87)

“Essentially what our paradigm promises – and what the history of economic thought has not accomplished – is to locate with some precision the non-economic area within which the problem [of labour market rigidity] lies”. (page 88).

How did two of the great sociological minds of the age manage not to notice the role of the trade unions in Britain and minimum wage laws elsewhere (like Australia) in prohibiting workers and management from striking agreement on wages that the employers could afford to pay? This is a truly remarkable oversight. They went on to say that research had identified some possible factors that contribute to the stickiness of wages but none that commanded agreement among labour economists. Their language is too woolly to indicate what the factors might have been but neither trade unions nor minimum wage laws got a mention.

Rothbard quotes Popper

One of the interesting non-engagements of the 20th century was the standoff between two of the most outstanding intellectual figures to emerge from Vienna, namely Mises and Popper. There may have been some anecdotal stuff about their fleeting contacts because they were both founding members of the Mont Pelerin Society but next to nothing has come to my attention.

The Mises Institute has circulated a Rothbard paper as an email attachment, "Praxeology as the method of the social sciences" first published in a collection of papers in 1973 and later in his own book The Logic of Action One (1977).

The gist of the paper is that the social sciences have been led astray by the positivist method of physics and they need to take on board the 'a priori' certainties and the praxeology of Mises, which he traced back to Cairnes and Senior.

Rothbard did not mention Popper as a critic of positivism. Some would say that the problem was not so much the embrace of the method of physics but rather it was the particular kind of philosophy of physics that came to dominate the philosophy of science, with determinism, subjectivism, inductivism etc.

Leaving that aside, a passage in Rothbard's paper relates to the impossibility of making exact predictions about the future. There is a footnote "We may mention here the well-known refutation of the notion of predicting the future by Karl Popper...The Poverty of Historicism pp vi-viii.)

It is a pity that Rothbard did not draw any comparison between praxeology and the method of situational analysis that Popper sketched in the Poverty.

Tuesday, November 15, 2005

Introduction to Jack Birner

Jack Birner is a very interesting, productive and versatile scholar, operating on the boundary of economics and cognitive science with a firm grasp of epistemology and methodology. He also operates across the Popper/Hayek divide, or rather does not acknowledge that there is a serious divide (unlike the Popperian social democrats who disparage Hayek and the libertarians who can't abide Popper), just differences.

This is a list of publications and cv type stuff

This list has even more stuff listed. WARNING Do not read if suffering from jet lag

He is based in the Dipartimento di sociologia e ricerca sociale, Uni of Trento, Italia and these are working papers by some of his colleagues.

Among some of his recently updated working papers is a particularly interesting one called The Mind Body Problem and Social Evolution which compares and contrasts Popper and Hayek on evolution and the human mind.

1. Introduction
2. Against obscurantism
3. Hayek’s theory of social evolution
4. Popper’s “early” theory of evolution
5. When does a theory qualify as a theory of evolution?
6. The place of the human mind in the world
7. The influence of Kant and Hume
8. Psychology and the theory of knowledge
9. Epistemology and the knowing subject
10. Popper’s criticism of Hayek
11. Group selection: Popper’s “late” theory of evolution
12. Self-reference as a problem for theories of cultural evolution
13. Some conclusions

"What can we learn from the confrontation between Popper’s and Hayek’s systems of ideas? I will indicate, too briefly, incompletely and sketchily, just a few answers.
In order for a theory of cultural evolution to account for the role of human knowledge without falling into contradictions must be indeterministic and non-materialistic. Popper’s theory of “behavioural monsters” that create ecological niches which subsequently act as units of selection is an interesting attempt that may be adapted to the domain of social and cultural evolution. The mechanism would be, very briefly, that the rational response of individuals to changes in their language receives confirmation from an unexpected quarter. Goals and preferences may lead to new institutions which may or may not prove to be able to be stable.
If we translate Popper’s theory of evolution to the social domain, I think that he has indicated that it is possible to construct an evolutionary theory that can account for the interaction between individuals and their institutional environment; that rapid change in social evolution does not need Lamarckian instruction; that group selection can be given a sound and non-tautologous content; and that our ontological conviction that ideas matter can find a place in such a theory.
If the contents of the human mind, its functioning and deliberate interventions guided by it do not make a difference to social evolution on the macro level, this has to be demonstrated. The mechanisms by which individual actions create unintended consequences must be specified.
(Pietro Terna is engaged in a research project that examines whether, and to what extent, the mental structure of individuals makes a difference for collective effects. He uses computer simulations. But it is good to keep in mind that he limits himself to one very particular collective efect, price formation.) This is the as yet largely unexplored domain of social amplifiers.

This is a previous reference to Birner's views on Popper and Hayek, written in response to Bruce Caldwell's position.

Progress on the Parsons Project

The background to this story is an invitation from Peter Boettke to rewrite some of my student essays on Talcott Parsons from the 1970s and submit to his Austrian economics journal. Extracts from the papers can be found in a previous post.

This is the current plan, starting from an abstract and a draft table of contents. Hint, work out as precisely as you can what you want to say. Don't hope that what you want to say will become clear as you generate text without the aid of a draft TOC. That can be described as the inductive (accumulation of facts) method of writing, just accumulate text and see what turns up. The other thing is to have a clear idea of your readership, or at least a kind of "ideal type" of reader.

Abstract.
Three varieties of methodological individualism in the social sciences can be traced back to the seminal contribution of Karl Menger, (1) the praxeology of Ludwig Mises (2) the voluntarist theory of social action of Talcott Parsons and (3) the situational analysis of Karl Popper. This paper descibes the contribution made by Talcott Parsons in his first book The Structure of Social Action (1937) and identifies some flaws in his approach which undermined the value of his subsequent work.

Draft Table of Contents
1. The education of young Talcott.
2. Reinventing the Austrian wheel in The Structure of Social Action.
3. Subsequent retreat from MI in his theoretical framework.
4. The underlying flaws in his system which precipitated the retreat.
5. Implications for future bridging work between the branches of the human and social sciences.

I have to tell you more about Jack Birner because he has a great introduction to the methods of Menger in his contribution to the collection on Menger's legacy edited by Bruce Caldwell. That will be a separate post. He is also good on the similarities and differences of Hayek and Popper on evolution and psychology. See what google turns up on that.

Anyway after an excursion to the Fisher Library at the Uni of Syd I now have some more reference material, including some Neil Smelser who worked with Parsons to integrate sociology with economics. Boy, did they screw up bigtime!

Must dash possums! More later.

Thursday, November 10, 2005

Collection of Austrian research papers

Markets, Information and Communication: Austrian Perspectives on the Internet Economy edited by Jack Birner and Pierre Garrouste, published byRoutledge, 2004, in the Foundations of the Market Economy series, edited by Mario J Rizzo and Lawrence H White. Hardback, 320 pp, index.

This is the edited proceedings of the third annual conference of the Association des Historians de la Tradition Economique Autrichienne, held in May 2001 in the Tuscan cities of Pisa and Lucca.The book is dedicated to the late Don Lavoi who wrote the keynote paper but did not live to deliver it.The Austrians have been accused of spending too much effort on philosophy and methodology and not enough on research and applied development ofAustrian theory. This collection looks like a telling rejoinder to that criticism.

This sounds like the conference of dreams. Thanks to Raimundo Cubeddu of the Uni of Pisa the accommodation was the Royal Victoria Hotel, favoured holiday address of many European Royal Families. Locations for the sessions included the spectacular town hall of the ancient fortified city of Lucca. Meals were taken at a series of carefully chosen restaurants. Adverse comparisons with the Popper conference in Vienna spring to mind. This was the first conference of the Association to be held outside France and I am advised that the association is now defunct so there is not likely to be another conference in the near future.

Contents: Part I Digitally connected networks.
1. Don Lavoie. 'Subjectivism, entrepreneurship and the convergence of groupware and hypertext'. 2. Giampaolo Garzarelli. 'Open source software and the economics of organisation'. 3. Mark S Miller and Marc Stiegler. 'The digital path: smart contacts with the Third World'.

Part II Some history.
4. Don Lavoie, Howard Baetjer and William Tulloh 'High-tech Hayekians' with comments by Marc Steigler and Pietro terna.5. Elise Tosi and Eominique Torre. 'The new economy as a co-ordinating device: Some Mengerian foundations'.

Part III The organization of the firm.
6. Nicolai J Foss. '"Austrian" determinants of economic organization in the knowledge economy'. 7. Philippe Dulbecco and Pierre Garrouste. 'The new economy and the Austrian theory of the firm'.

Part IV Networks and communication.
8. Guido Fioretti. 'The small world of business relationships'.

Part V Markets and market failure.
9. Richard Arena and Agnes Festre. 'Some specific Austrian insights into markets and the "new economy"'.10. Mark Steckbeck and Peter Boettke. 'Turning lemons onto lemonade: entreprenneurial solutions to adverse selection problems in e-commerce'.11. Roger Koppl and Ivo Sarjanovic. 'Big players in the 'new economy''.

Part VI The monetary sector in the Internet.
12. Anthony P Mueller. 'Bubble or new era? Monetary aspects of the new economy. 13. Jean-Pierra Centi and Gilbert Bougi. Possible economic consequences of electronic money'.

Part VII The legal framework.
14. Elisabeth Krecke. 'The emergence of private lawmaking on the Internet:implications for the economic analysis of law'.

This is billed as a notice rather than a critical review because the bredth and depth of the proceedings places them well beyond my capacity to fully comprehend, let alone advance useful criticism. The conference was held at a time when the dot.com bubble was beginning to burst, however the editors note that the papers are as relevant as the daythey were delivered and it is apparent that we are only paddling in shallows of what will become the ocean of the Internet economy.

A few comments: I am not convinced that Don Lavoie's "hermeneutic turn"adds value to a more prosaic or traditional analysis of the benefits that flow from advanced means of communication. Stedbeck and Boettke criticise the view that markets are doomed to fail on account of sellers having more information about their product than buyers, the paradigm case being "lemons" - defective used cars. The argument from used cars is rather weak because there are any number of ways of getting additional information, ranging from taking along a friend who knows about those things to hiring an agency to do a test. Besides, prudent people buying a used car will buy cheaper than they initially budgeted and mentally consign the difference to a "maintenance and repairs" fund. Austrians have been criticised for failing to do empirical work and turningtheir backs on mathematics. I have not been able to understand what holds them/us back in these areas apart from shortage of personnel (just providedthat the research and the use of maths make sense). Roger Koppl and IvoSarjanovic have apparently demonstrated how to do empirical work with somewhat sophisticated analysis of the data in a way that does make sense, though one would like to see a critical appraisal by someone who is on top of the issues and the methodology. Assuming that it does stand up to criticism, one hopes that lot more of this kind of work is in the pipeline.

The book is very well and attractively produced as a physical artefact and I trust that the rise of web-based communication does not undermine the ancient and honourable crafts that are involved in book production. Judging from the experience of the Mises Inst in putting whole books on line, this actually stimulates sales, not surprisingly, who wants to accumulate hundreds of pages of unbound A4 to maintain a reference library of important texts?

Wednesday, November 09, 2005

artmarket: part II

Following on from this, I have a small idea about a better way to allocate public funding for the arts.

The motivation here is that public money for the arts, whether you agree with its existence or not, is allocated according to decisions made by a small group of experts. Could an aggregation of individual choices - a distributed computation - do it better?

The idea is simply to allow potential grant recipients to post their project ideas on-line, and then allow people to vote for them in a way that, overall, will rank their desirability, prior to each funding round. The web is used to provide a catalogue of arts and cultural options, which tax-payers can then subjectively evaluate, and value by exercising their right to vote for particular projects. Public funding is then allocated on the basis of voting results. A sort of fiscal ballot, if you like.

One of the perceived problems with arts funding as it stands is that larger and more established organisations receive more attention in the funding process than do small, relatively unknown artists/enterprises. The catalogue mechanism, being web-based and therefore focused on the quality of the pitch - rather than the organisation making it - would provide a flatter landscape for getting new project ideas in front of their tax-paying sponsors (and potential audience).

But an important aspect to this idea is that it separates the decision to support a potential arts/cultural project (i.e. by voting for it) from the decision to consume it in the market (by attending the performance/exhibition etc). This mechanism therefore creates a type of 'democratic option', in the sense that citizens of a jurisdiction have the right to vote on - to subjectively value - a potential project with no attendant obligation to exercise that right by direct consumption in the market.

This 'real options' approach - which separates the right to value from the obligation to exercise that valuation - may have applications to other fiscal domains: sport, infrastructure, foreign aid, and environmental & urban amenities come to mind. What all these areas have in common, to a greater or lesser degree, is that tax payer dollars are spent on them but there is little ability for individals to express their preferences on how those tax-dollars are spent (and, crucially, whether they should be spent at all, a collective decision-outcome which would be accommodated by a well-designed voting mechanism).

In this sense the current situation in many areas of government spending is the inverse of that suggested by the logic of real options theory: now, we are obliged to pay taxes to fund these activities but have no right to value their specific allocation or implementation. The 'fiscal ballots' or 'democratic options' I am suggesting could change this.

Many issues arise in the execution of this idea: do people get voting budgets? Can people on-sell their right to vote in a secondary market? How do you properly identify and secure individual's voting rights in a web-based environment? How do you prevent gaming of the system? I think these (and other issues) can be addressed at least academically by, for example, designing good economic experiments - and perhap simulations - to test the mechanism, its assumptions and its potential outcomes. A real-world experiment with radical fiscal democracy might be another thing altogether.

There are in any case precedents, at least of a sort. The Swiss are well-practiced at facilitating (more) direct democracy via frequent referenda; using the web for particular collective allocation decisions would surely reduce the costs and increase the efficacy of such endeavours. More specifically, there is already at least one project underway in Australia that allows voting for arts/cultural projects with pecuniary consequences.

A final thought: arts experts and libertarians both will likely take issue with this idea; the former because it undermines the value of their expert status (and their associated investment in education/training); the latter because it's not quite a market solution that's being proposed.

Arts (in fact, any) experts should be willing to at least test the value of their insights against decisions that emerge from democratic processes. Libertarians should also concede that, like it or not, tax-payer money is currently spent on these activities. A mechanism that introduces the right to choose the allocation of these funds at least ameliorates the involuntary obligation to pay for them in the first place.

Tuesday, November 08, 2005

The rise and fall of Talcott Parsons

Talcott Parsons (1902-1979) was the towering figure in American sociology through the 1950s and 1960s. Then it seems that he has faded into something approaching obscurity despite the stranglehold that he and his students (who became colleagues) seemed to have on the subject for at least two decades.

Peter Boettke is keen to build bridges from economics to sociology to work towards a more unified body of social science and that is an aim that he shares with Parsons.

In the 1970s I did some serious reading on Parsons as a part of a Masters qualifying program in Sociology at the Uni of NSW. This resulted in two or three assignments which I lately dug out and scanned in case they have some use, which it seems they do because Peter would like to see them revised and submitted for possible publication in his Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics.

This is the working draft of the abstract and the contents.

Abstract: Three varieties of methodological individualism in the social sciences can be traced back to the seminal contribution of Karl Menger, (1) the praxeology of Ludwig Mises (2) the voluntarist theory of social actionof Talcott Parsons and (3) the situational analysis of Karl Popper. This paper descibes the contribution made by Talcott Parsons in his first book The Structure of Social Action (1937) and identifies some flaws in his approach which undermined the value of his subsequent work.

Contents
1. The education of young Talcott.
2. Reinventing the Austrian wheel in The Structure of Social Action.
3. Subsequent retreat from individualism in his theoretical framework.
4. The underlying flaws in his system which precipitated the retreat.
5. Implications for future bridging work between the branches of the human and social sciences.

Below is a partially edited version of two of the old papers.

By the way, let me know if there is a way to fold posts on Blogger, I don't like posts that go on and on, and even when this paper is cut down it is going to be rather substantial.


TALCOTT PARSONS AND "THE STRUCTURE OF SOCIAL ACTION"

Parsons discovered his theoretical problems through contact with several key influences, most of whom were dead. The important intellectual figures were Kant, Malinowski, Weber, Marshall, Pareto, Durkheim and Whitehead, then later Freud and more recently the US biologist Emerson. Kant's Critique was one of the courses which Parsons had to 'make do with' in his disorganised second year at Amherst. He discovered Malinowski in London and he found Weber's work in Heidelberg.

When he returned to Amherst he was persuaded by Richard Miriam to go on to Harvard to strengthen his understanding of economics and Miriam arranged an instructorial appointment there in the fall of 1927. At Harvard F W Taussig and Joseph Schumpeter helped Parsons with his study of Alfred Marshall and L J Henderson introduced him to Pareto. As he began to outline his voluntarist theory of action, which involved the convergence of Marshall, Pareto and Weber, he found that more attention had to be paid to Durkheim but he had no teachers in this venture which involved unlearning much that he had picked up from Ginsberg and Malinowski.

PART II: PARSONS' APOLOGY FOR SYSTEMATIC THEORY.

"Returning to this country I found behaviorism so rampant that anyone who believed in the scientific validity of the interpretation of subjective states of mind was often held to be fatuously naive. Also rampant was what I called 'empiricism', namely the idea that scientific knowledge was a total reflection of the 'reality out there' and even selection was alleged to be illegitimate".

Parsons' first problem was to defend systematic theory against various forms of empiricism which emphasised the accumulation of facts as the proper occupation of a scientist. At the same time he attempted to justify what he called analytical realism against theorists who looked upon theories as merely convenient fictions. Against the empiricists Parsons claimed that there could be no worthwhile fact gathering without some reference to theory, and against the 'convenient fiction' or instrumental view he maintained that "at least some of the general concepts of science are not fictional but adequately 'grasp' aspects of the objective external world".

Parson's congenial attitude to theory was shaped by the course on Kant which he took as an undergraduate and it was reinforced by his Continental travels. His position with regard to fact and theory was a marked advance on the various forms of empiricism which he attacked. He never claimed that facts do not matter and he has always insisted that theory should not become divorced from facts. For Parsons, theory is required to organise facts and to provide a guide to fact finding.

"... the scientific importance of a change in knowledge of fact consists precisely in its having consequences for a system of theory"..

And with regard to empirical work:

"The primary question will be, what theoretical reasons did he have for being interested in these particular problems rather than others, and what did the results of his investigations contribute to the sol­ution of his theoretical problems?"

SECTION III: THE STRUCTURE OF SOCIAL ACTION.

This section outlines the substantial contribution which Parsons made to sociological theory in his first major work, The Structure of Social Action (TSA, 1937). This will involve a reconstruction of the problem situation as Parsons saw it.

The problem was the failure of three systems provide an adequate general theory of action. A satisfactory theory had to provide a frame of reference to analyse the puzzling co-existence of social order with voluntarism or indeterminism, and it had to provide a frame of reference to analyse the emergence of complex systems whose function could not be reduced to the laws explaining the function of the parts, while explaining the interpenetration which exists between the factors controlling the whole and the factors controlling the parts.

The three systems which had failed were:
I) Utilitarianism and economic theory which involved a rationalistic, individualistic theory of social behaviour.
II) Positivism, which involved the reduction of human behaviour to laws of physics and biology.
III) Idealism, theories which interpreted social phenomena as emanations from the realm of cultural values.

THE INADEQUACY OF THE UTILITARIAN SCHEME.

"The theoretical action system characterised by these four features, atomism, rationality, empiricism and randomness of ends will be called in the present study the utilitarian system of social theory".

Parsons analysed the deficiencies of this theory at length and two main criticisms emerged. First, this scheme could not account for ritualistic activities which did not seem to serve any rational purpose (as 'rational purpose' was defined within the system). Parsons commented "Their negative valuation of ritual was one of the few points on which the Puritans and the men of the humanistic renaissance could agree".

Second , and more important, the theory gave no explanation of social order or the coordination of individual acts into organised social systems. "For the failure to state anything positive about the relations of ends to each other can then have only one meaning - that there are no significant relations, that is, that ends are random in the statistical sense"

Such a theory could give no answer to the Hobbesian problem of order.

THE INADEQUACY OF THE POSITIVISTIC SCHEME.

Positivism attempts to overcome the utilitarian dilemma by providing a scientific explanation for the coordination of ends.

"If ends mere not random, it was because it must be possible for the actor to base his choice of ends on scientific knowledge of some empirical reality...Then action becomes determined entirely by its conditions...The active role of the actor is reduced to one of the understanding of his situation and forecasting of its future course of development".

But what sort of information would be used by the calcuIator/actor for his forecasting? According to Parsons' interpretation:
"...the explanation of action lies in the conditions of the action objectively rather than subjectively considered, most practical purposes may be taken to mean in the factors of hereditary and environment in the analytical sense of biological theory".

But Parsons was not prepared to accept this because it ignored the emergent properties of complex systems, particularly the ethical elements which he believed entered as a creative factor in human action.

"The orientation of ethics (as opposed to science) is essentially active. Its centre of gravity lies in the creative role of the actor, his ends. Freedom of choice is basic to ethics; whatever determinism is accepted lies in the field of the consequences of having made a given choice".

THE BREAKDOWN OF IDEALISM.

Idealism presented answers to some of the problems left unsolved by utilitarianism and positivism but it did this by verbal sleight of hand, introducing the Geist or spirit of the culture to explain human action as an emanation. This solved the problem of order without using physical reduction but it involved reduction of a different kind. As a general theory of action, explanation of human behaviour as a manifestation of the Geist is hardly better than an explanation in terms of physics and biology. What was worse from Parsons' point of view as a systematic theorist was the idealist doctrine that generalisations could not be made about societies or cultures. Every social situation had to be considered in its concrete uniqueness.

Parsons followed Weber in his reaction against two idealist doctrines which Parsons calls objectivism and intuitionism. Both schools agree that general laws cannot be used in the human sciences but they disagree as to the reasons.

Objectivism or 'particularism' is the view that the historical and social sciences should only concern themselves with the detailed facts of particular human acts and not attempt to build up any general theories. (This is remarkably similar to the empiricist approach to the growth of knowledge in general, although empiricism is often presented as a polar opposite to idealism). Along with this goes the idea that the subject matter of the social sciences has certain peculiarities which make generalisations about it impossible, and so in so far as general concepts are supposed to be rational, then historical reality is 'irrational'. Against this Weber argued that we cannot make sense out of history and human behaviour unless; there is some pattern in it, and the necessary pattern is provided by human motivation which we comprehend by sympathetic understanding. In other words, we have access to the subjective aspect of human action and this concept of intuitive understanding he called verstehen.

Intuitionism involves an extension of the role of verstehen, to grasp the nature of cultural totalities in all their uniqueness and individuality. Objectivism stresses the need to carefully build up a picture of the historical reality. In contrast, intuitionism places emphasis on the "flash of insight". Weber replied that both ignore the need for general principles in formal analysis. In addition he considered that the intuitionist confuses the psychological problem of the origin of ideas with the methodological problem of testing them to find how well they fit the facts.

Weber went on to build up a sophisticated methodology including three elements which Parsons adopted. These are:

I) general concepts are required in the social sciences as well as in the natural sciences.

2) verstehen, the faculty of sympathetic understanding, is required to cope with the subjective aspects of action.

3) if action is to be understandable there must be an element of rationality in it. There must be some comprehensible relationship between ends and means.

Parsons was not completely satisfied with Weber's methodology because he thought there was even less difference between the natural and social sciences than Weber allowed. Parsons instead proposed to make a distinction between analytical and historical sciences, which cuts across the boundaries usually placed between the natural and social sciences.

Parsons was also critical of Weber's tendency to admit or imply that general concepts such as his system of 'ideal types' were useful fictions. This almost allowed his methodology to lapse back into the errors of objectivism and intuitionism.

So the "action frame of reference" for Parsons consists of a situation where the key elements are the physical aspects of the situation, the values internalised by the actors, the aims of the actors and the decisions that they make on the basis of their plans and their interpretation of the situation.


SECTION IV: DEVELOPMENTS SINCE THE STRUCTURE OF SOCIAL ACTION

Since his first book Parsons set out to correct what may have appeared to be an excessively individualistic approach implied in the voluntarist theory of action because he believed that "...the structure of social systems cannot he derived from the actor/situation frame of reference." Part of this venture was his 'pattern variable' scheme which he envisaged as an attempt to provide the social sciences with a language to play the part that mathematics played in physics.

"What we need is not a science purified of theoretical contamination but one with the nearest possible approach to an equivalent of the role of mathematical analysis in physics".

In accordance with his basic interest in the emergence and the interpenetration of systems he set out to analyse social action systems in terms of a heirarchy, starting with the organism, then the personality, then the social system, and finally the cultural system. Within this scheme he sought the key to social order in the process of socialisation. With socialisation Freud was a vitally important influence on Parsons work in "The Structure of Social Action and he undertook a course in lay psychoanalysis. He wanted to find how the organism could be converted into a personality which would interact smoothly with the prevailing structures social system. At the same time he wanted an explanation of the failure of socialisation if and when it occurred.

"There must be some mechanism by which the behavior of individuals is motivated to conform with institutional expectations, even though personality structure as such does not give an adequately effective background for it."

This led him to a new definition of sociology: "Sociological theory, then, is for us that aspect of the theory of social systems which is concerned with the phenomena of the institutionalisation of the pattern of value-orientation in the social system".

He sorted out four levels of generality of normative culture which have to be internalised if the social order is to be maintained. These are related to the hierarchy mentioned above (organism, personality, social system, culture). At the apex there are the ultimate values of the culture. These provide legitimation of the normative rules which operate in society. At the level of the groups within society there are goals which are pursued and the fundamental structural unit is the individual in a role. In other words, the individual has a repertoire of roles which he uses in pursuit of goals. The means which may be used in pursuit of these goals are regulated by norms and these are sanctioned by the ultimate values.

Apart from his theoretical work he has always been concerned with social and political issues. These interests emerge in papers such as "The Problem of Controlled Institutional Change" which was concerned with ways and means of introducing democracy into the body politic after the military defeat of Germany.

He happily describes himself, throughout his adult life, as a "typical American 'egghead' intellectual, a New Dealer and Fair Dealer, and in general inclined to support the Democratic Party, on its liberal side".

Second article on Parsons


Ssomething may be gained by investigating where he went wrong after making such a promising start in his first book. To summarise, he did not have the benefit of an articulated theory of "metaphysical research programs", consequently he lapsed into essentialism and holism, under the influence of a defective view of the role of mathematics in physics.

After The Structure of Social Action Parsons maintained his interest in systematic or general theory since "It is scarcely too much to say that the most important single index of the state of maturity of a science is the state of its systematic theory". And an integral part of his theory has been the concept of system.

"The concept of system as a guiding conceptual scheme is of the first importance as an organising principle and a guide to research. It may thus be said that the concept of a theory of system is the most strategic tool for working toward the attainment of a system of theory."

He introduced the concept of system into sociology under the influence of Pareto, Whitehead, Cannon and Henderson because it seemed to be a Good Thing in classical mechanics and physiology. This may seem a strange procedure for a man who described himself as a participant in the war of independence of social sciences with regard to biology but Parsons always leaned upon the physical sciences for ideas about the methodology of theory construction. The Structure of Social Action contains many references to the tendency for a theoretical system to become "logically closed" in the manner of classical mechanics and more recently he stated that we need a science "with the nearest possible approach to an equivalent of the role of mathematical analysis in physics'

"At the end of this road...lies the ideal state scientifically speaking, where most actual operational hypotheses of empirical research are directly derived from a general system of theory....Most emphatically I wish to say that the general theory on which I have placed such emphasis can only be justified in so far as it "spells out" on the research level, providing the more generalised conceptual basis for the frames of reference, problem statements and hypotheses, and many of the operational concepts of research."

So the main function of the general theory is to provide general categories and to provide a language. Explanation and prediction do not occur among the nine functions. Presumably these are left to the empiri­cal generalisations at level IV and general theory has to be spelled out through middle range theories by providing "the more generalised conceptual basis for the frame of reference" mentioned above. Parsons insisted that special theories (scientific theories in the usual sense of the term) cannot be developed without the prior articulation of a highly integrated conceptual scheme or general theory.

"To make empirical generalisation the central focus of theory in a science is to put the cart before the horse.' In proportion as a generalised theoretical system is really perfected, and, what necessarily goes with it, empirical research and knowledge of fact builds up, it becomes possible to attain more and more comprehensive empirical generalizations. Indeed it can be said that any system of sound empirical generalisations implies a generalised theoretical system."

It seems that the subsequent failure of development in the Parsons Program may be related to something that was defective in his conception of the relationship between the "generalized theoretical system" or the metaphysical framework, and the testable scientific theories that it is supposed to sponsor.


ISOMORPHISMS AND HOLISM

It seems that at the time of writing (in the mid 1970s) Parsons' general systems theory was not a useful part of the scientific enterprise, at least of that enterprise that involves testable theories. This section examines two other areas where Parsons appeared to be confused. First the matter of isomorphisms.

The mainspring of general systems theory building (including the work of Rashevsky and von Bertalanffy) is the idea that isomorphisms can be found between theories in different fields i.e. in biology and sociology, or in personality, society and culture. If isomorphisms cannot be found then the general systems venture is a failure. If they are found the issue is still in doubt because the data may have been selected or organised to fit the isomorphic model. And even if this is not the case, Brodbeck has argued that isomorphisms are not very exciting anyway.

Parsons appeared to be unsure where he stood on the issue of isomorphisms. At one stage he announced, as a result of some importance, that the five pattern variables which he developed to analyse social structures can "when rephrased in accord with the psychological perspective, be identified as fundamental points of reference for the structure of personality also". Baldwin examined this claim and found that the attempt to develop the correspondence between stages of development and the sectors of society had only served to obscure some genuine contributions that Parsons had to make to the theory of socialisation. In reply Parsons simply backed off "the reason why the term 'isomorphism' is a dubious one, is that each of these two systems...is grounded in different exigencies". Precisely. But where does this leave us with the use of the pattern variable scheme to organise both the personality system and the social structure? More conceptual boxes?

Parsons' holism is apparent in the following statement regarding the problem of dynamic analysis.

"The ideal solution is the possession of a logically complete system of dynamic generalisations which can state all the elements of reciprocal interdependence between all the variables of the system. The ideal has, in the formal sense, been attained only in the systems of differential equations of analytical mechanics. All other sciences are limited to a more "primitive" level of systematic theoretical analysis..."

"It is thus the functional reference of all particular conditions and process (sic) to the state of the total system as a going concern which provide the logical equivalent of simultaneous equations in a fully developed system of analytical theory."

Repeatedly Parsons cast his eye towards analytical mechanics for a paradigm of dynamic analysis and his idea of the role of theory apparently came from physics.

"A science of physics without higher mathematics would be the real equivalent of the empiricists' ideal for social science. This shows quite clearly that what we need is not a science purified of theoretical infection - but one with the nearest possible approach to an equivalent of the role of mathematical analysis in physics."

It appears that Parsons seriously misjudged the role that mathematics plays in science. It is not necessary for the production of theories nor for their statement, though it is a part of the apparatus of inference that enables physicists to extract testable consequences from the theory.

So the conclusion of this analysis of Parsons' general theory of systems is that he was misled by a defective theory of the relationship between concepts and theories. This was aggravated by his ambiguous view on isomorphism and his holism. Despite this he established himself as the sociological theorist par excellence so that anyone who disagrees with his approach is nevertheless obliged to contend with it, which can be a time consuming process. The situation was not improved when commentators such as Robert Merton, who appeared to have a more healthy appreciation of the role of theory, still felt obliged to tip his hat to Parsons. "The major contribution [to theory] in recent years is, of course, that by Talcott Parsons in The Social System". However Merton went on to mention some reservations which might very usefully have been spelled out at greater length. "The salient contributions of so comprehensive and logically complex a work as The Social System cannot be readily distinguished from its more provisional and at times debatable conceptual developments". See also his comments on a book by Levy, The Structure of Society. "This book derives largely, as the author says, from Parsons' conceptual scheme, and presents a logical multiplication of numerous categories and concepts. It remains to be seen whether such taxonomies of concepts will prove appropriate and useful in the analysis of sociological problems".

It seems that Parsons and his ideas have faded from view, which is surprising when you think how many students would studied Sociology during the two or three decades when he was a leader in the field in the US. Such is the rise and fall of fads and fashions.

AN ALTERNATIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR PARSONS

If Parsons was on the right track in his first book, what would have represented a more appropriate line of development, in contrast with the holistic and essentialist path that he actually pursued?

This is a question that has to be addressed to those of the Popper school and the Austrians who are engaged in empirical studies. I am not aware of anyone who is self-consciously using Popper's approach to field work in the social sciences, and the only discipline where the Austrians appear to be active is economics. Much remains to be done.

Rafe Champion